By this time everyone might be aware of the election results.Headlines Today post poll survey predicted DMK to win these elections by a whisker.CNN-IBN predicted that the ADMK will not get majority on its own and it has to depend on its allies like DMDK and Communists.Tamil Nadu's no.1 crap magazine Nakkeeran predicted a repeat of DMK govt.Junior Vikatan too predicted that ADMK will not get majority on its own.But one man predicted more than 175 seats to ADMK and he was too strong on his opinion.He was none other than the veteran journalist Mr.Cho Ramaswamy.But not only Cho,one more person predicted 180+ seats to ADMK+ and its none other than me :P.
ADMK won with an overwhelming majority.What does this symbolize?Is this a Jayalalitha wave?Is this nothing more than sheer arithmatic?Does Vijayakanth have a significant role in this huge success?Or is this an anti-DMK wave?Let me explain.
If you are going to think that,ADMK's huge success in TN is sheer arithmatic,then its like the same old story of sour grapes.This is a severe blow to corruption,nepotism,atrocities,rowdiism,goondaism,monarchy.The people have taught a clear lesson to the DMK-Congress alliance.I am not an ADMK partyman or an ADMK sympathizer.I am just a common man like every other individual and so I am not writing all these stuff to satisfy the ADMK supremo.I have facts to substantiate my stand.
In 1996,ADMK won just 4 seats.There was an anti-Jayalalitha wave and not pro-Karunanidhi wave.In 96,Tamil Maanila Congress(TMC) led by G.K.Mooppanaar played a major part in bringing back the DMK to power(for this alliance also Cho was the co-ordinator).Also Rajnikanth's support to DMK-TMC alliance helped them to a great extent.Had Rajni entered politics in 96,he would have been the Chief Minister(anyway that is past).Again 2001,the ADMK+ won with absolute majority and formed a govt on its own.So,the verdict was clear that it was a perfect anti-DMK wave.Whereas the scenario was entirely different in 2006.The ADMK alliance won 69 seats in TN,with ADMK alone getting 61 seats.The DMK couldn't get a majority on its own and it formed a govt at the state under the mercy of congress.Yes Jaya rightly pointed out "Minority DMK Govt" frequently :D.
This is what we should call as sheer arithmatic.Because,in 2001 there was no third party to give a stiff competition to the 2 major Dravidian parties.But in 2006,Vijayakanth emerged as a powerful force.His party won just 1 MLA(which was Vijayakanth himself),but it got a voteshare of around 7-8%.The anti-DMK votes got split and at the end of the day,the loser was Jayalalithaa.ADMK's politics itself is based on anti-DMK votes,when that is getting diverted,definitely she will be the loser.Inspite of all these factors,she didn't lose cheaply and her party managed to get 60+ seats.One thing we can clearly understand from this fact is that,had Vijayakanth not floated a party and contested the 2006 elections,Jayalalitha would have got a second term for sure.In 2009 parliament elections too,Vijayakanth played the spoilsport,though his party didn't win any MP seat,still it managed to spoil the prospects of ADMK atleast in 20 constituencies.Point to be noted here is,though the DMK bribed the voters to a great extent,it won only because of DMDK.
This is the reason why many political analysts insisted an ADMK-DMDK alliance.Now because of this alliance,both the parties have benefited to a greater extent.Vijayakanth,who alone went to assembly during the last govt,as an MLA,is now going to sit as the leader of opposition.His' is the 2nd largest party.ADMK is going to form its own govt,with 150+ MLAs,which means we are going to see a stable govt for the next 5 yrs.
The Tamil Nadu voters has sent out some messages to the politicians.If you think that you can easily win based on your caste support,then you will definitely not.This was pretty clear from the way the PMK and VCK parties suffering a humiliating defeat.PMK was able to win just 3 out of 31 seats and VCK lost all the 10.The PMK lost in its founder's town(Tindivanam) itself.Manidhaneya Makkal Katchi(ADMK ally) was able to win some seats,but Muslim League(DMK ally) couldn't win any seat.Doesn't this clearly mean that people voted only based on governance not based on caste/religion?
This election also has sent a strong message to the corrupt politicians.The DMK thought that they could easily 'buy' the victory by bribing the voters.They have given the worst possible govt in the past 5 yrs,but still they hope that they can easily win by bribing the voters.In Rishivandhiyam constituency,its MLA(now ex-MLA) Sivaraj paid around 3 to 4K to voters to defeat Vijayakanth.The voters without any hesitation got the money and voted for Vijayakanth without any second thought.He won with a huge margin of 30,000 votes.
I have been saying this constantly.Comedians/actors/actresses/clowns can bring crowd to meetings.Crowd will clap,laugh and enjoy these artistes' speech.But that will not transform into votes.Our people are not that much dumb to believe every crap that the sun tv telecasted.Vadivelu's campaign definitely had a great effect in this election.It gave a huge publicity to 'politician' Vijayakanth and his party.Even Jaya tv didn't give that much coverage to Vijayakanth as given by sun tv/kalaignar tv.Using comedians and actors during campaign is a common tradition in India.But Vadivelu's campaign was awkward.That has really irritated the people of TN. Result - Vijayakanth's party wins more no. of seats.My point has been proved perfectly.Vadivelu's half-baked stupid campaigns cannot spoil the reputation of either Vijayakanth or the prospects of the ADMK.
One disappointment is in the form of Saidhai.Duraisamy.I doubt that some fraudulent activities has happened there and as a result of which M K Stalin won.NDTV said Stalin lost.But later on,after some chaos in the counting process there,Stalin was 'declared' winner.What's really disappointing is,an able person will not become a minister now.
Another disappointment is in the form of Vaiko.Mr.Vaiko should have bargained for some 12-15 seats and he should have contested the elections with ADMK.Had he done that,definitely he would have got 10 MLAs.He was with ADMK for 5 yrs completely and he was a loyal ally.But he should have realized his limitations and should have accepted the offer of 12 seats.You have missed a great opportunity Mr.Vaiko.I wrote in this same space one month back about Vaiko under this LINK as follows:
Vaiko announced that his party will not contest in the upcoming polls.This is suicidal.Vaiko may be a honest politician,but he is not just smart enough to survive in politics.After elections,I believe a majority of MDMK partymen will join DMK and ADMK.And his decision to boycott the polls will not produce any major effects.Vaiko is an excellent orator and losing his fiery campaigns is definitely a set back for ADMK and the MDMK partymen are just too good in doing field works.But this is not going to affect the chances of an ADMK win.At the end of the day Mr.Vaiko is going to be the sore looser.
Not only TN,there were also elections for 4 other states.In Assam,Tarun Gogoi has won for the 3rd consecutive time.The only state in which the congress party was able to win convincingly.Of-course the people of West Bengal has dethroned the 34 year communist rule and has voted for a change.The congress cannot claim even a single percent credit for this success.It was all a Mamata wave and the anti-incumbency factor that brought the Trinamool Congress to power.The congress is just enjoying the benefits of being an ally of Mamta Banerjee.But I feel the people of Bengal will soon feel that Communist rule was far better.
It is the Kerala election results,which is really interesting.'Experts' predicted a landslide victory for the congress there.The English channels,CNN-IBN,Headlines Today tried their best to create a picture as if the congress was all set to rock the Kerala.I had a belief that the communist party would do well even though they lose,as they were projecting V S Achuthanadan as their CM.V S A is an honest man and his bold actions against corruption deserves a second term for sure.And the verdict was clear.People has not let them completely down.The LDF alliance won 68 out of 140 seats and the congress could manage around 70.Now there is going to be a hung assembly in Kerala.Which means that the people doesn't have faith on the congress.
In Pudhucherry(or Pondicherry) too AINRCongress+ADMK alliance won with a clear majority and N Rangasamy,who floated the NR Congress only 2 months ago,is all set to become CM.Which is again a blow to the congress.
The verdict is clear - perform or perish.You can't 'buy' the victories.Democracy still exists.Majority of the people participate in democracy.Those who refrained from voting deliberately are sore losers.If its due to situations and circumstances that you were not able to vote means,its ok,not a mistake.Those who voted can feel proud of themselves.Jayalalitha or Vijayakanth or Karunanidhi,whoever it be,only we,the voters,who decide who should rule this state.If we are not ok with a govt,we have the power to unseat them.I salute every individual who had cast his votes(you might have voted for DMK/ADMK/BJP/49-O,it doesn't matter) .People who consider themselves as 'intelligents' and chose not to vote should feel ashamed of themselves.
Corruption lost,caste lost,religion lost,but Democracy won.Long live democracy!!!.Let us hope we get a good government atleast from now.