Just 1 more day to go.On 13th of May,2011,we can know who is going to be the honorable Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for the next few years.Headlines Today post poll surveys predicts a coalition govt headed by DMK again and CNN-IBN post/exit poll surveys predicts a coalition govt headed by ADMK.In another website,rediff.com,it is said that ADMK+ is all set to sweep the polls.I know people are really confused on seeing all these stuff and I am able to understand the fact that the readers of this blog are completely confused and you people are expecting me to provide a solution for your confusions.I will be really to solve all your confusions by giving a clear cut answer on who is going to win the polls..Unfortunately,I am also confused like you people :D..So even I have to wait for one more day..
But,these exit polls and post poll surveys may not be exactly true.These numbers are based on the opinion of only a small percentage of voters.Of-course the media can claim that they are applying a so and so technique,so its very much possible.If these exit polls are going to be picture perfect,then why do we need a counting.We can take these results and call Kalaignar or Jayalalitha to form the govt.But there is a problem in this case also.Each media is giving its own numbers :D,so this option is rejected :P.
I too have collected some info about these polls.Only some ten days before the poll,it is said that,lot of money was given to voters to 'buy' their votes.In a VIP constituency near Chennai,there are allegations that the ruling party has given 6k/vote.Also in the north district,to defeat a VIP from the opposition camp(ADMK camp),the ruling coalition has allegedly spent around 3 to 4000 per vote.Like this in so many constituencies,it seems that, money flow was there to a large extent.If all these money transforms into vote,then there wont be any change in the state govt.At the most maximum, some Congress MLAs may get minister posts.
But,inspite of all these factors,if the ADMK+ is going to form a govt in the state,that too with an absolute majority,it clearly means that,the people of TN had disapproved the bribe offered by the political parties(including ADMK) and have voted based on governance.If that is going to be the case,ADMK+ has a bright possibility of winning 180+ seats.There are also allegations that,ADMK candidates too have given money to voters.Of-course they can't match DMK's 5k or 6k because 2G is with only DMK.But still,its a fact which has to be shared.
These English channels has always supported the Congress party,when it comes to elections.This too might be one such ploy by the pro-congress channels.One fact I have observed in these polls means,its the unanimous opposition to the congress party.Supporters of the ADMK led alliance feel that the congress should not win.This is quite natural,as the congress is with their rivals.But the DMK supporters too feel the same.That's something to be noted.Reason,the congress was just too adamant in getting 80+ seats from DMK,while the DMK was not ready to give more than 48.Finally the congress 'snatched' 63 seats from the DMK,using its more trusted ally,the CBI.This has forced the DMK to contest only in 119 constituencies(119 or 117 am not sure).This clearly means that the DMK is not at all going to form a govt with absolute majority.If the reports published in some magazines is going to be true,then the congress will win some 15-20 seats.Not more than that.The reports say that,though the DMK bigwigs has allotted enough money to all the constituencies(including the ones in which the congress is contesting),the congress partymen complain that the local DMK people didn't spend the money during the poll campaign and they claim that they kept the money with themselves,for giving away the constituency to congress.From this,we can understand the kind of field work that the DMK men might have done.
Not only the DMK-ADMK supporters feel that the congress should lose,there is also another group which feels the congress should suffer a humiliating defeat.No no am not talking about BJP or the Tamil Eelam sympathizers.The group am referring to is none other than the congress partymen.The congress supporters themselves wants the party to lose and learn a lesson in these polls.Before the polls,Rahul Gandhi asked the opinion of the partymen about forming an alliance in the polls.It is reported that most of the party men wanted the party to align with ADMK.Refer to statements of EVKS Ilangovan,uttered in the past 8 months.But the congress went with DMK,which has upset the congressmen.Moreover the TN president of Congress party, Mr.Thankabalu,is at the receiving end for not giving seats to right candidates.It is said that,there were campaigns against Thankabalu in his constituency(Mylapore) by the congressmen themselves.Such is the condition of TN Congress.
So with all probabilities its not going to be an easy poll for the DMK+.Some DMK bigwigs might lose this time.Stalin-'Saidhai' Duraisamy contest is the most interesting one.Being a VIP candidate,one can expect Stalin to win hands down,but this time he was forced to 'PAY MORE' attention in his constituency.'Saidhai'Duraisamy is a tough opponent for sure.But still its not going to be all easy for Dhuraisamy either.Thats y I said its an interesting contest.
After the counting,if DMK wins,one man will claim that the reason for ADMK's defeat was ignoring him.He is none other than Mr.Vaiko.That too,if ADMK loses out closely,definitely Vaiko will claim credit.If ADMK doesn't get absolute majority,then we may expect polls in TN before the completion of the 5 yr term itself or we may see a new CM.If the ADMK is going to form a govt on its own,with absolute majority,then it will be really interesting to see the proceedings in TN.The govt servants will go to offices regularly.Some statues might disappear :D.Moreover,an ADMK victory with absolute majority will be a clear indication of success of democracy.Its not that Jaya is the best alternative,but it will be an indication that one can't 'buy' the 'victories' simply by bribing the voters,after giving a miserable govt.This will show the participation of public in the democracy,which is its ultimate success.
On the other hand,if DMK is going to win,there will be an 'upanayanam' to most of the magazines and dailies.Kalaignar will claim credits for breaking the brahmin conspiracy(which exists only in his corrupted mind).The entire cinema association will arrange a felicitation function for the grand old CM of TN for his intelligence and 'honesty(???)'.(This is the only event which was conducted consistently in the past 5 yrs).Spectrum case will go to grave.But if DMK wins,the tough challenge before Kalaignar will be not from Jayalalitha or Vijayakanth,but from his own family members.That will be the biggest challenge the sitting CM of TN will be facing.
Irrespective of the fact that who is going to win these elections,definitely there is going to be one man who will feel a lot for his deeds during these elections.Yes he has dug his own grave.He is none other than 'VaigaiStorm(Vaigaipuyal)' Vadivelu,who will get lost in the storm which is going to occur in TN after 13th.He thinks the DMK will do some favors to him for his 'awkward' campaign against Vijayakanth.But the DMK is known for betraying such people.The DMK has never hesitated to insult even good people,in that case a person like Vadivelu,will not appear significant to them.If ADMK comes to power,others will casually avoid him.They wont even consider his name for any tasks.And if you people are going to think that this clown has shattered the ADMK votebank and this clown has spoiled actor Vijayakanth's reputation,then either you are too naive in politics or too adamant in not believing the reality.Because of his awkward campaign,only he lost his reputation.This is fact.And he is at his witty best,this fellow is mocking the movie of the biggest Superstar in Tamil Cinema.What a shame!!!.
Honestly speaking BJP doesn't have an existence in TN.This time,they MIGHT make an impact.In Nagercoil constituency,Pon.Radhakrishnan might get more votes and there is a slight chance for him to win.But its not as easy as some people think.In the recently concluded parliamentary elections,he came second in Kanniyakumari constituency(in which polled the highest number of votes from Nagercoil).But last time,3 candidates were against him and all the 3 were christian(Helen Davidson(DMK, who won),Benjamin(Communist,not sure of the name), Austin(DMDK).This time he is facing hindu candidates only.And I guess the parties gave ticket to Hindu Nadars,which might affect his chances of victory.But still he is a relatively worthy candidate.If he wins,then its going to create history.But still its too difficult for the BJP to make its presence felt in these elections is what I think.
That's it friends.All said and done,let us hope for a non-DMK govt.I am able to feel an anti-DMK wave,which should obviously result in the return of 'The Mummy' with thumping majority.But we have to wait one more day to know who is really going to be the CM of TN,because sometimes some polls are unpredictable.